Harvest Shortfalls, Grain Prices, and Famines in Preindustrial England
利用1268-1480年和1750-1850年英格兰谷物产量新数据和修订的价格序列，测量了坏收成的频率和需求价格弹性，发现重大收成短缺是大多数历史生存危机的主要因素，但到1800年左右产量变异性降低，价格对收成的敏感度下降，英格兰在工业革命前夕已基本消除饥荒。
The frequency of bad harvests and price elasticity of demand are measured using new data on English grain yields 1268–1480 and 1750–1850 and a revised price series. The analysis shows that major harvest shortfalls were a significant component of most historical subsistence crises, as back-to-back shortfalls were of the worst famines. Although serious harvest shortfalls long remained an unavoidable fact of economic life, by c.1800 yields had become less variable and prices less harvest sensitive. By the eve of the Industrial Revolution, England had become effectively famine-free.