加总不是解决办法:购买力平价谜题卷土重来

Aggregation is not the solution: the PPP puzzle strikes back

Journal of Applied Econometrics · 2009
被引 22
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

反驳了Imbs等人关于加总数据能解决购买力平价谜题的观点,指出其部门持久性估计存在向下偏差,且加总与部门模型在冲击持久性上一致,因此加总并非解决办法。

Abstract

Abstract Recently, Imbs, Mumtaz, Ravn and Rey (2005, hereinafter IMRR) have argued that much of the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle is due to upwardly biased estimates of persistence. According to them, the source of the bias is the existence of heterogeneous price adjustment dynamics at the sectoral level that established time series or panel data methods fail to control for. This paper re‐examines this claim in two steps. Firstly, we demonstrate that IMRR's measures of sectoral persistence are systematically downwardly biased because they are based on an inaccurate definition of the ‘average’ impulse response function (IRF). We then show that standard estimates of shock persistence are recovered after this bias is corrected. Secondly, building on the results in Mayoral (2008), which prove that aggregate and micro models induce the same shock persistence behavior, we show that estimates based on aggregate and sectoral exchange rates are, in fact, highly consistent. Thus, aggregation is not the solution to the PPP puzzle. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

购买力平价谜题部门异质性脉冲响应函数聚合偏差