Does the Welfare State Destroy the Family? Evidence from OECD Member Countries
利用政治分裂程度作为工具变量，研究发现福利国家扩张提高了OECD国家的生育率、结婚率和离婚率，且对结婚率影响最大，总体上支持家庭形成，但改变了家庭组织形式。
Abstract We study the effect of the size of the welfare state on demographic trends in OECD member countries. Exploiting exogenous variation in public social spending, due to varying degrees of political fractionalization (i.e., the number of relevant parties involved in the legislative process), we show that an expansion in the welfare state increases fertility, marriage, and divorce rates with a quantitatively stronger effect on the marriage rate. We conclude that the welfare state supports family formation in the aggregate. Further, we find that the welfare state decouples marriage and fertility, and therefore alters the organization of the average family.