CURRENT PROBLEMS IN ECONOMETRICS— A PERSONAL VIEW: Address on the Occasion of the Investiture of Professor John Denis Sargan with the Degree of Doctor Honoris Causa of the University Carlos III, 2 February 1993
作者回顾了45年来对计量经济学的信心变化，指出经济建模在理解经济系统和制定政府政策方面仍面临诸多问题，并简要概述了成功建模的挑战。
Forty-five years ago when I started to study econometrics seriously I was full of confidence that the application of mathematics and statistical methodology would soon lead to a better understanding of the economic system, and, ultimately, to better public and private policies. Now, with the world economy poised on the edge of a world slump and Eastern Europe and the undeveloped world in turmoil my general hope seems optimistic. Even within econometrics, experience proves that the more we study econometrics the more there is to discover. I will concentrate on a brief survey of the problems in successfully modelling an economy both for understanding the way that it works and for the purpose of deciding on successful government policies.