The Jarrow/Turnbull default risk model—Evidence from the German market
本文用德国银行和公司债券价格估计Jarrow-Turnbull模型中的违约强度，发现单独估计优于截面估计，并研究了最优数据量和违约强度的影响因素。
Abstract This article estimates default intensities within the continuous-time Jarrow and Turnbull model for German bank and corporate bond prices. It is shown that a joint implicit estimation of the default intensity and the recovery rate is numerically unstable. In addition to cross-sectional estimations, separate estimations (for each bond individually) are performed. Results strongly support separate estimation over the building of any cross-sections. In contrast to preceeding literature, the optimum volume of data required to provide reasonable estimates of the default intensity is also investigated. It is shown that calibration based on daily data as a rule does not minimize the ex ante mean squared pricing errors. Finally, it is shown that the constant default intensity assumption is not sound with the underlying data and the determinants of the default intensity are investigated. Regressions show that the lagged default intensity estimate, the level of the default-free term structure and liquidity proxies affect the estimated default intensity via joint parameters.