The role of fiscal policy in the St. Louis model: An evaluation and some new evidence
使用谱分析和双向分布滞后模型，基于1947-1984年美国季度数据重新检验财政政策在圣路易斯支出方程中的作用，发现财政政策与名义收入存在显著偏相干关系，且收入领先于财政政策。
Abstract This paper re‐examines the role of high employment budget expenditures (fiscal policy) in the St. Louis expenditure equation by using spectral analysis and the spectral estimates of a two‐sided distributed lag model. The analysis is undertaken with quarterly U.S. data from 1947:1 to 1984:IV in the rate of change form. A salient conclusion is that fiscal policy has statistically significant partial coherences with (nominal) income, with the latter leading the former over the business cycle. We find that income is jointly related to lead terms of fiscal policy in a two‐sided distributed lag model. Some explanations for these results are provided.