Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk
从计量经济学家和经济模型中的经济主体两个视角，探讨理性预期模型中的推断问题，涉及信念、怀疑与学习如何影响宏观经济风险的评估。
This essay examines the problem of inference within a rational expectations model from two perspectives: that of an econometrician and that of the economic agents within the model.The assumption of rational expectations has been and remains an important component to quantitative research.It endows economic decision makers with knowledge of the probability law implied by the economic model.As such, it is an equilibrium concept.Imposing rational expectations removed from consideration the need for separately specifying beliefs or subjective components of uncertainty.Thus, it simplified model specification and implied an array of testable implications that are different from those considered previously.It reframed policy analysis by questioning the effectiveness of policy levers that induce outcomes that differ systematically from individual beliefs.I consider two related problems.The first is the problem of an econometrician who follows John F. Muth (1961),