决策后悔的风险溢价

Risk Premiums for Decision Regret

Management Science · 1983
被引 405 · 同刊同年前 8%
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

研究人们在不确定决策中为避免后悔而愿意支付的溢价,探讨了替代方案后果的联合概率分布未指定或未实现的情况,并识别出风险厌恶的两个成分:边际价值递减和后悔厌恶。

Abstract

Some people find decision making under uncertainty difficult because they fear making the “wrong decision,” wrong in the sense that the outcome of their chosen alternative proves to be worse than could have been achieved with another alternative. These people may be willing to pay a premium to avoid consequences that produce this decision regret. This paper continues an earlier investigation into the normative implications of decision regret and looks at situations where the joint probability distribution of consequences between alternatives is not specified at the time of the decision. It includes a discussion of cases where the outcomes produced by alternatives not chosen are never resolved. A consequence of this model of preferences for risky situations is that two components of risk aversion may be identified, decreasing marginal value and regret aversion.

决策遗憾风险溢价遗憾厌恶风险厌恶