Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?
利用154个国家1963-2007年的数据，研究发现经济快速增长反而降低了短期内向民主制度转变的可能性，而由不利天气冲击导致的经济收缩对民主变革的时机有重要影响。
Does faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963–2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country's rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change.