Urban Hierarchies and City Growth in the Balkans
利用1981-2001年巴尔干半岛数据，研究受冲突影响的城市规模分布动态，发现中等城市比大城市更能抵御外部冲击，但城市规模未趋于稳定。
This paper uses empirical evidence from the Balkan peninsula during the 1981—2001 period, in order to study the dynamic patterns of a conflict-affected city-size distribution. By examining the time variations of the Pareto exponent on the one hand and by exploring cities’ relative growth patterns and intradistribution mobility on the other, the paper shows that city growth dynamics follow a ‘hybrid’ pattern, where city size filters the effects of external shocks. City-size dynamics thus seem more complex than that predicted by random growth or endogenous growth theories. In the Balkan peninsula, during the 1981—2001 period, medium-sized city demographics have resisted external shocks due to conflicts, redrawing of national frontiers and institutional upheaval better than large conglomerations. However, this does not lead to convergence towards a steady city size.