Fertilization under Uncertainty: An Analysis Based on Producer Yield Expectations
基于德州玉米生产者对产量和价格的主观概率评估，计算最优氮肥施用量，发现基于预期效用最大化的模型比预期利润最大化模型更贴近实际施肥量，但两者均高于实际用量。
Abstract Optimal nitrogen fertilizer levels are computed for a sample of Texas Coastal Bend grain sorghum producers based on their assessed subjective conditional yield and price probabilities, utility measures, and cost information. Producers' mean yield expectations were substantially greater than experimental yield response and their perceptions of the effects of nitrogen on yield variability were contrary to usual characterization of nitrogen as a risk‐increasing input. Optimal fertilizer levels based on expected utility maximization represent actual fertilizer use somewhat better than those based on expected profit maximization. However, both calculated levels were high relative to actual fertilizer use.