Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited
在新凯恩斯模型中检验预期在大缓和时期的作用，发现预期能解释通胀和利率的动态，但其重要性随时间大致不变，且包含与不包含预期的系统在简化形式上相似。
We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and interest rates but their importance is roughly unchanged over time. Systems with and without expectations display similar reduced form characteristics. Results are robust to changes in the structure of the empirical model.