Land and Stock Prices in Japan
研究了日本过去四十年股价和地价的上涨及1990年代初的暴跌，发现1985-89年的上涨和1990-92年的下跌主要由利率和信贷市场条件驱动，但部分投机性土地市场存在泡沫证据。
This paper discusses the rise of Japanese stock and land prices in the past four decades and their dramatic decline in the early 1990s. To what extent can fundamental factors explain both the price levels and the returns from land and stock in Japan? Are land prices driving stock prices, or the other way around, or are still other factors affecting both? How has government policy interacted with the price changes? In practice, it is very difficult to solve the problem of separating the explanation that a bubble occurred from the possibility that the underlying fundamental problem is misspecified. We believe that the bulk of the rise in Japanese asset prices from 1985–89 and the decline during 1990–92 was driven by interest rate and credit market conditions. However, in certain speculative land markets, there is some evidence in support of the bubble hypothesis.