The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country
以巴斯克地区的恐怖主义冲突为例，发现冲突导致该地区人均GDP相对于无恐怖主义的合成控制地区下降约10个百分点，并利用1998-1999年停火作为自然实验，发现停火期间相关企业股票表现更好。
This article investigates the economic effects of conflict, using the terrorist conflict in the Basque Country as a case study. We find that, after the outbreak of terrorism in the late 1960's, per capita GDP in the Basque Country declined about 10 percentage points relative to a synthetic control region without terrorism. In addition, we use the 1998–1999 truce as a natural experiment. We find that stocks of firms with a significant part of their business in the Basque Country showed a positive relative performance when truce became credible, and a negative relative performance at the end of the cease-fire.