Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan
研究了1997至2009年苏丹南北部像素级气温异常与冲突风险的关系，发现升温显著增加冲突风险，未来中位情景下风险将扩大24-31%，并指出水资源竞争是主要驱动因素。
Our article contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflicts by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict, whereas the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 24–31% in the future under a median scenario. Our analysis also sheds light on the competition over natural resources, in particular water, as the main driver of such relationship in a region where pastoralism constitutes the dominant livelihood.