Measuring the Economic Impact of Monetary Union: The Case of Okinawa
利用冲绳1958年与美国、1972年与日本建立货币联盟的数据，分析货币联盟如何影响两国间名义和实际冲击的行为，发现货币联盟降低了实际汇率波动、增强了商业周期联动，并促进了名义和实际趋同。
Data from Okinawa's monetary union with the United States in 1958 and with Japan in 1972 are used to obtain a quantitative indication of how monetary union might affect the behavior of nominal and real shocks across two economies. With monetary union, the variance of the real exchange rate between two economies declines, and their business cycle linkage becomes stronger. A VAR analysis of output and price data for Okinawa and Japan further indicates that the contribution of asymmetric nominal shocks in business cycles becomes smaller. Monetary union thus seems to facilitate both nominal and real convergence. © 2004 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.