Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight
研究了财政政策新闻从公布到实施的时间差对家庭和企业行为的影响，利用专业预测者调查和市政债券市场识别两类财政新闻，并将其纳入DSGE模型，发现忽略新闻的时间变化会带来重要后果。
Legislative and implementation lags imply that substantial time evolves between when news arrives about fiscal changes and when the changes actually take place—time when households and firms can adjust their behavior. We identify two types of fiscal news—government spending using the Survey of Professional Forecasters and taxes using the municipal bond market. The main contribution of the paper is a mapping from reduced-form estimates of news into a DSGE framework. We find that news about fiscal policy is a time-varying process and show that ignoring the time variation can have important consequences in a conventional macroeconomic model.