Export instability: An alternative analysis of causes
针对发展中国家出口不稳定性原因的研究，本文指出传统跨国回归分析不适用，转而采用单个国家的时间序列模型，并构建更贴近供需决定因素的解释变量，新模型对样本数据有较强解释力。
Numerous studies into the causes of the export instability experienced by developing countries have failed to establish any significant relationships. This paper suggests that the widely‐used technique of cross‐country regression analysis is inappropriate and that the typical explanatory variable set is inadequately specified. Accordingly, analysis is shifted to a time‐series basis at the level of individual countries, and explanatory variables are developed which correspond more closely to the supply and demand determinants of instability. Applying this alternative model to data for a sample of developing countries produces results which suggest that this approach has considerable explanatory power.