FIRE IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON: A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MODEL FOR POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS*
构建空间显式模型估计巴西亚马逊森林和农业火灾概率，利用牛肉和大豆价格等变量模拟道路建设、牛肉出口和保护区划定对火灾的影响，发现火灾与牛肉和大豆价格正相关，新建保护区可抵消前沿开发初期火灾增加的负面环境影响。
ABSTRACT This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farm‐gate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of field management and deforestation fires to simulate the impact of road‐paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.