UNCERTAINTY AND THE DECISION MAKER: ASSESSING AND MANAGING THE RISK OF UNDESIRABLE OUTCOMES
提出一种排序新方案的方法，考虑不同结果的不确定性及其好坏性质，通过决策平面整合机会成本，并展示损失函数与净收益函数对资源分配排序的影响。
We present an approach to rank order new programs in ways that accommodate uncertainty of different outcomes occurring, on the basis of the size and nature ('bad' or 'good') of those outcomes. This represents an improvement on the way uncertainty has been accommodated in existing approaches (e.g., threshold approach to cost-effectiveness analysis). We illustrate the approach using the decision making plane, which explicitly incorporates opportunity costs and relaxes the assumptions of perfect divisibility and constant returns to scale of the cost-effectiveness plane. The nature of the bad (or good) outcome is determined by the quadrant that it falls into (i.e., a 'quadrant effect') and its magnitude by its location within the quadrant (i.e., 'within quadrant effect'). By explicitly defining the loss function, the process of accepting (or rejecting) a new program becomes transparent. We illustrate the approach using a loss function and a net gain function. We show that by recognizing that, not all bad (or good) outcomes are equal and the choice of a loss or a net gain function can result in different ranking of resource allocation options. Further implications of the proposed approach are discussed.