The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867–2006: A Dynamic Factor Approach
使用动态因子模型估计1867年以来美国经济活动指数，发现1980-1990年代的大缓和以及1960年代的黄金时代波动异常低，并探讨了战后波动性相对于1914年前的变化。
We estimate a Stock/Watson index of economic activity to assess U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867. We replicate the Great Moderation of the 1980s and 1990s and find exceptionally low volatility also in the Golden Age of the 1960s. Postwar moderation relative to pre-1914 occurs under constant but not time-varying factor loadings, suggesting structural change toward more volatile sectors. For comparable series, the U.S. postwar business cycle was as volatile overall as under the Classical Gold Standard, but much less so during the Great Moderation and the Golden Age.