Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes
研究了100次系统性银行危机后实际人均GDP的变化，发现平均需要约8年才能恢复到危机前收入水平，45%的案例出现二次探底。
We examine the evolution of real per capita GDP around 100 systemic banking crises. Part of the costs of these crises owes to the protracted nature of recovery. On average, it takes about 8 years to reach the pre-crisis level of income; the median is about 6.5 years. Five to six years after the onset of crisis, only Germany and the United States (out of 12 systemic cases) have reached their 2007-2008 peaks in real income. Forty-five percent of the episodes recorded double dips. Post-war business cycles are not the relevant comparator for the recent crises in advanced economies.