May the pro-poor impacts of trade liberalisation vanish because of imperfect information?
通过比较标准CGE模型与引入风险厌恶、不完全信息和生产滞后的版本,评估农业贸易自由化对不同地区不同收入家庭的福利影响。
In this paper, we try to evaluate the change in welfare gains and their distribution due to trade liberalization when imperfect information is considered.The results of two versions of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, using GTAP database and representing goods as well as capital flows, are compared.In the first one, a standard world CGE approach is followed.In the second version we include risk aversion, imperfect information and production lag in the agricultural sector.After a brief description of the two versions, changes in welfare, represented by the income of two types of household (middle-low and middle-high) in three regions (Europe, United States, Rest of the World) after agricultural trade liberalization are presented.Theoretical and political consequences of the results are discussed.