When forecasting earnings, it pays to be right!
研究盈利预测误差与股票价格表现的关系，发现预测准确的股票表现更优，对证券分析师和投资者有参考价值。
S ecurity analysts spend a great deal of effort searching for any information that will help them make a more precise valuation of a security. Foremost in their search is an accurate forecast of earnings.’ The earnings forecast is widely used in stock selection, because analysts have found that movements in stock price are closely linked to earnings changes.2 Because evidence shows that earnings are not always fully and correctly reflected in stock price^,^ it would appear that an accurate forecast of earnings should lead to superior stock selection performanae. What kinds of benefits can be expected to accrue from an accurate earnings forecast? One way of gaining insight into this question is by studying the relationship between forecast error (analysts’ estimates compared to reported earnings per share) and stock price performance. In one of the earliest studies in this area, Niederhoffer and Regan analyzed the performance of the 50 bestand 50 worst-performing stocks on the New York Stock Exchange in 1970. They found stock performance to be closely related to the type of earnings forecast error. Those stocks whose earnings had been underestimated performed in a superior manner, while those whose earnings had been overestimated performed very poorly. These results demonstrate a basic relationship between forecast errors and stock price performance. This study is different from Niederhoffer and Regan’s, in that it analyzes a much larger sample of stocks, conducts a time-series analysis over a 10-year period, and utilizes a more advanced statistical methodology. The study also determines the relationship between the relative size and type of the forecast error