The Time-Varying Relationship between Mortality and Business Cycles in the USA
研究了1961-2010年间美国总死亡率、车祸死亡率和心血管疾病死亡率与商业周期的关系，发现这种关系随时间变化，近期某些年龄组甚至呈现逆周期特征，技术进步和工作时长变化是重要原因。
We examine the relationship between total mortality, deaths due to motor vehicle accidents, cardiovascular disease and measures of business cycles for the USA, using a time-varying parameter model for the periods 1961-2010. We first present a theoretical model to outline the transmission mechanism from business cycles to health status, to motivate our empirical framework and to explain why the relationship between mortality and the economy may have changed over time. We find overwhelming evidence of structural breaks in the relationship between mortality and business cycles over the sample period. Overall, the relationship between total mortality, cardiovascular mortality and the economy has become less procyclical over time and even countercyclical in recent times for certain age groups. Deaths due to motor vehicle accidents have remained strongly procyclical. Using drugs and medical patent data and data on hours worked, we argue that important advances in medical technology and changes in the effects that working hours have on health are important reasons for this time-varying relationship. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.