The Sources of Fluctuations in Aggregate Inventories and GNP
用一个简单的线性二次库存模型分析1947-1986年美国成本冲击和需求冲击如何共同导致总库存和GNP波动，发现成本冲击是库存波动的主要来源，但对GNP波动两者重要性相当。
A simple real linear-quadratic inventory model is used to determine how cost and demand shocks interacted to cause fluctuations in aggregate inventories and GNP in the United States, 1947–1986. Cost shocks appear to be the predominant source of fluctuations in inventories and are largely, though not exclusively, responsible for the fact that GNP is more variable than final sales. Cost and demand shocks are of roughly equal importance for GNP. These estimates, however, are imprecise. With different, but plausible, values for a certain target inventory-sales ratio, cost shocks are less important than demand shocks for GNP fluctuations.