World Carbon Dioxide Emissions: 1950–2050
利用1950-1990年跨国面板数据估计简化模型，预测至2050年的化石燃料二氧化碳排放，发现IPCC常用排放增长预测与历史经验显著偏离，并揭示了人均排放与人均收入之间的倒U型关系。
Emissions of carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels, which may contribute to long-term climate change, are projected through 2050 using reduced-form models estimated with national-level panel data for the period of 1950-1990. Using the same set of income and population growth assumptions as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we find that the IPCC's widely used emissions growth projections exhibit significant and substantial departures from the implications of historical experience. Our model employs a flexible form for income effects, along with fixed time and country effects, and we handle forecast uncertainty explicitly. We find clear evidence of an "inverse U" relation with a within-sample peak between carbon dioxide emissions (and energy use) per capita and per-capita income. © 1998 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology