Protectionism and the Stock Market: The Determinants and Consequences of Trade Restrictions
研究了美国过去15年保护主义贸易政策对股票市场和就业的影响，发现全面保护主义政策导致标普500指数和总就业下降，受保护行业的股票指数也下跌。
For the past 15 years, U.S. trade policy has been on a steady course toward protectionism. The call for protection from foreign competition is predicated on the belief that trade restrictions will either increase equity values of firms dealing in traded goods or increase employment levels in industries competing with cheapforeign labor. Investment managers should know the magnitude of movements in equity values associated with the imposition of trade restrictions. Empirical results suggest that acrossthe-board protectionist policies are associated with a decline in the S&P 500 and a decline in aggregate employment. In addition, examination of four industries that received specific trade protection shows that, in all four cases, imposition of the protectionist measure was associated with a decline in each industry's stock index. One industry enjoyed a gain in employment. Policy intervention in international trade appears to be systematically related to economic events. The most important determinant of across-the-board protectionist policies since 1960