The Long-Term Expected Rate of Return: Setting It Right
纠正了关于长期预期回报率的常见错误，提供了基于一年期参数直接计算n年期回报率期望和方差的精确公式，并用实例说明。
A number of serious, widely held errors and misconceptions about the long-term expected rate of return need to be dispelled. First, this rate need not be approximated, because exact formulas for this estimate are easy to find and apply. Second, such an approximation could be quite misleading. This article offers simple methods and exact formulas to determine the expected value and variance of the n-year horizon rate of return directly in terms of the one-year parameters. The probability distribution of that return is also brought out. Concrete examples illustrate these results.