Learning from Experiments when Context Matters
研究政策制定中内部有效性与外部有效性的权衡，发现同一情境下的非实验证据优于其他情境的实验证据，且实验复制难以逆转这一优势。
Suppose a policymaker is interested in the impact of an existing social program. Impact estimates using observational data suffer potential bias, while unbiased experimental estimates are often limited to other contexts. This creates a practical trade-off between internal and external validity for evidence-based policymaking. We explore this trade-off empirically for several common policies analyzed in development economics, including microcredit, migration, and education interventions. Based on mean-squared error, non-experimental evidence within context outperforms experimental evidence from another context. This advantage declines, but may not reverse, with experimental replication. We offer four reasons these findings are of general relevance to policy evaluation.