The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development
构建了一个可量化的统一增长理论，通过校准模型复制瑞典等先行国家的历史发展动态和跨国面板数据模式，发现经济与人口转型的启动时机对解释发展差异至关重要，而外生死亡率差异是影响各国起飞时机和全球比较发展模式的关键因素。
This paper develops a quantifiable unified growth theory to investigate cross-country comparative development. The calibrated model can replicate the historical development dynamics in forerunner countries like Sweden and the patterns in cross-country panel data. The findings suggest a crucial role of the timing of the onset of the economic and demographic transition for explaining differences in development. Country-specific differences in extrinsic mortality are a candidate explanation for differences in the timing of the take-off across countries and the resulting worldwide comparative development patterns, including the bimodal distribution of the endogenous variables across countries.