Are Durable Goods Consumers Forward-Looking? Evidence from College Textbooks
利用1997-2001年大学书店的教科书销售数据，检验学生是否具有前瞻性消费行为，发现学生短期折现率低且对出版商修订行为有理性预期，模拟表明出版商无法通过加速修订周期持续提高收入。
We test whether textbook consumers are forward-looking, using a large new data set on textbooks sold in college bookstores during the ten semesters from 1997 to 2001. The data strongly support the hypothesis that students are forward-looking with low short-run discount rates and that they behave as if they have rational expectations of publishers' revision behavior. Data from a second new data set on the market prices of used books at Amazon Marketplace also support the hypothesis of rational, forward-looking behavior. Simulation results indicate that students are sufficiently forward-looking that publishers cannot consistently raise revenue by accelerating current revision cycles. (c) 2009 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology..