A New Method for Valuing Common Stocks
提出T模型，用公司增长率、净资产收益率和市净率估算投资者预期总回报，发现预期回报独立于股息政策，且低市净率通常有利。初步测试表明该模型能有效排序股票组合未来表现，优于标准股息贴现模型。
A new formula for estimating an investor 's expected return -the T-Model-expresses total return in terms of a company's growth rate, its return on equity and its price-book ratio. The model shows that expected return is independent of a company's dividend policy or its current yield. Elaborate adjustments for yield bias are thus unnecessary. The model implies that a low price-book ratio is usually desirable, because lowering the price-book ratio increases expected return if the company's ROE exceeds its growth rate (as is the case for most companies). The price-book ratio by itself, however, is an incomplete estimator of return; variations in g, ROE and industry averages must also be considered. Neither is growth an automatic harbinger of high expected return. Its effect will depend to a great extent on a firm's price-book ratio. Preliminary tests of the T-Model suggest that it can successfully rank stock portfolios according to their future relative performance and may be more successful than the standard dividend discount model in this regard. It is also easier to use and intuitively more appealing than the dividend discount model.