Unpacking the Long-Run Effects of Tariff Shocks: New Structural Implications from Firm Heterogeneity Models
提出一个仅依赖加总贸易数据和行业-国家帕累托形状参数的一般均衡解法，用于评估关税冲击。发现单边取消关税对多数国家不利，但印度、日本、韩国和美国获益，暗示关税歧视低效；多边关税削减则偏向发展中国家。
I derive a novel solution for the general equilibrium effects of tariffs that is robust to heterogeneity across industries and countries, and is a function of only aggregate trade data and country-by-industry Pareto shape parameters. Using the model to evaluate tariff shocks, I show that while most countries lose by removing observed tariffs unilaterally, India, Japan, Korea, and the United States gain by doing so, which suggests inefficient tariff discrimination. In evaluating multilateral shocks, observed tariff cuts over 1994 –2000 benefit 69 percent of countries, with these benefits skewed toward developing nations. In contrast, removing all post-2000 tariffs benefit the developed.