New Lamps for Old: An Exploratory Analysis of Running Times in Olympic Games
分析了1900至1976年奥运会男子100至800米跑冠军成绩，用非线性模型估算最佳成绩，并研究距离、年份、海拔等因素对成绩的影响，预测了1980和1984年成绩。
SUMMARY In this paper, we analyse the winning times in the men's 100, 200, 400 and 800 metres run in the Olympic Games from 1900 to 1976. A non-linear model is fitted to each of the series, and an estimate of the best attainable time for each of these events is obtained. The entire data are then analysed as two-way classified data, to examine the effect on running times of distance of the race, and the in which the Games were held. The year effects will estimate improvements in techniques and training methods over the years. The effect of the altitude of the meet on reported times is also studied. Two methods of analysis-mean and median fitting- are presented for comparative purposes. The times for these events in the 1980 Olympics are predicted using the fitted models and are compared with the observed times. A set of predictions for the 1984 Olympics is provided for future comparison.