Evaluation of Financial Distress: A Case Study of UCHUMI Supermarket Ltd
以UCHUMI超市为案例，检验Altman Z值模型在2003-2012年间预测财务困境的准确性，发现模型有效但2012年处于灰色区域，需警惕未来破产风险。
There exists no conclusive agreement on which financial ratio(s) are most appropriate to assess the likelihood of financial distress and the successful turnaround strategies of recovering firms. This study evaluates financial health in Uchumi supermarket limited by testing whether Altman’s Z score model is accurate in predicting corporate financial distress for a study period of 2003 to 2012. The company was selected because of its historical record of financial difficulties in the mid 2000s that led to its receivership in June 2006 and its current recovery to profitability. Analytical formulas in Altman’s model were applied on the financial statements. The results reveal that the model is accurate with Z values reflecting a distress zone especially in the period under receivership and a grey zone in 2012 which is an alarming matter that may lead to corporate bankruptcy in near future unless corrective measures are undertaken.