Flip-Flopping, Primary Visibility, and the Selection of Candidates
研究两阶段选举中候选人在初选和普选中选择不同立场的行为，选民通过竞选活动推断候选人意识形态，模型解释了初选后温和化效应和分裂初选效应。
We present an incomplete information model of two-stage elections in which candidates can choose different platforms in primaries and general elections. Voters do not directly observe the chosen platforms, but infer the candidates' ideologies from observing candidates' campaigns. The ability of voters to detect candidates' types depends on the visibility of the race. This model captures two patterns: the post-primary moderation effect, in which candidates pander to the party base during the primary and shift to the center in the general election; and the divisive-primary effect, which refers to the detrimental effect of hard-fought primaries on a party's general-election prospects.