GREAT MODERATION AND GREAT RECESSION: FROM PLAIN SAILING TO STORMY SEAS?
通过实证分析发现，2008年大衰退并未终结产出波动下降的大缓和时期，产出波动仍处低位，但低波动与缓慢复苏相关，对政策制定有重要启示。
Abstract Many have argued that the Great Recession of 2008 marks the end of the reduction in output volatility known as the Great Moderation. This article shows that this is not the case through an empirical analysis. Output volatility remains subdued despite the output loss of the Great Recession. This finding has important implications for policymaking because we also find that a lower volatility of output is associated with slower recoveries.