Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Implications from the Economies in Transition?
探讨东欧和前苏联转型经济体对发展中国家资本流动的影响，认为私人资本流动无需担忧，但官方援助可能被分流，基于历史数据分析了援助转移的风险。
Are capital flows to developing countries likely to be affected by new demands from Eastern Europe and the former U.S.S.R? The paper discusses capital flows from private and official sources and concludes that there is little reason for concern about capital flows from the private sector. Few developing countries currently have access to these flows, and the economies in transition are unlikely to attract large-scale private flows during the next few years. In fact, developments in other parts of the world are more likely to influence global capital markets than developments in Eastern Europe. In terms of official finance, and especially official development assistance, there may be reason for concern, however. Empirical analysis of past experience suggests that large sustained increases in aid to selected countries tended to divert substantial flows from other developing countries. Of course, the current situation is unique: alternative scenarios are possible in which official assistance to Eastern Europe need not divert aid from developing countries.