Intertemporal Uncertainty Avoidance: When the Future Is Uncertain, People Prefer the Present, and When the Present Is Uncertain, People Prefer the Future
通过三项实验发现，人们在跨期选择中会规避不确定性：未来不确定时偏好立即获得收益或损失，现在不确定时则偏好未来，这与现有理论预测相反。
Three studies explored the effects of uncertainty on people’s time preferences for financial gains and losses. In general, individuals seek to avoid uncertainty in situations of intertemporal choice. While holding the expected value of payouts constant, participants preferred immediate gains and losses if the future was uncertain, and preferred future gains and losses if the present was uncertain. This pattern of preferences is incompatible with current models of intertemporal choice, in which people should consistently prefer to have gains now and losses later. This pattern of uncertainty avoidance is also not explained by prospect theory models, which predict risk seeking for losses. We discuss these findings in relation to previous literature. Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2349 . This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, judgment and decision making.