Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity
利用准随机获取的预测性警务数据，研究发现信息技术通过提高犯罪破案率来提升警察生产力，并导致犯罪率出现大幅负向趋势断点，成本效益比显著。
Abstract An increasing number of police departments use information technology (IT) to optimize patrolling strategies, yet little is known about its effectiveness in preventing crime. Based on quasi-random access to “predictive policing,” this study shows that IT improves police productivity as measured by crime clearance rates. Thanks to detailed information on individual incidents and offender-level identifiers it also shows that criminals strategies are predictable. Moreover, the introduction of predictive policing coincides with a large negative trend-discontinuity in crime rates. The benefit–cost ratio of this IT innovation appears to be large.