Post-1500 Population Flows and The Long-Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality
构建了一个矩阵,显示2000年各国人口中来自1500年不同来源地的祖先比例,用该矩阵调整早期发展指标后,能更好地预测当前GDP,且国家内部早期发展历史的差异可预测当前不平等。
We construct a matrix showing the share of the year 2000 population in every country that is descended from people in different source countries in the year 1500. Using the matrix to adjust indicators of early development so they reflect the history of a populationâs ancestors rather than the history of the place they live today greatly improves the ability of those indicators to predict current GDP. The variance of early development history of a countryâs inhabitants is a good predictor for current inequality, with ethnic groups originating in regions having longer histories of organized states tending to be at the upper end of a countryâs income distribution.