Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War
研究墨西哥打击贩毒政策的效果，发现保守党市长当选后毒品暴力激增，原因是打击行动削弱了原有犯罪团伙，引发对手争夺地盘，同时贩毒路线转移导致其他路线暴力增加。
Drug trade-related violence has escalated dramatically in Mexico since 2007, and recent years have also witnessed large-scale efforts to combat trafficking, spearheaded by Mexico's conservative PAN party. This study examines the direct and spillover effects of Mexican policy toward the drug trade. Regression discontinuity estimates show that drug-related violence increases substantially after close elections of PAN mayors. Empirical evidence suggests that the violence reflects rival traffickers' attempts to usurp territories after crackdowns have weakened incumbent criminals. Moreover, the study uses a network model of trafficking routes to show that PAN victories divert drug traffic, increasing violence along alternative drug routes.