Is there a term structure in land lease rates?
将期限结构概念应用于农地租赁价格,基于理论构建特征价格模型,分析德国萨克森-安哈尔特州土地租赁合同,发现2007-2008年农业价格繁荣期期限结构向上倾斜,随后几年呈单峰形态,反映市场预期变化。
This article applies the concept of a term structure to agricultural land rental prices. Based on theoretical considerations, we develop a hedonic pricing model that allows for different shapes of the term structure curve while controlling for other price-relevant characteristics. We apply this model to land lease contracts in Saxony-Anhalt. We find an upward-sloping term structure during the agricultural price boom in 2007 and 2008, where market participants expected increasing rental prices. For the subsequent years, however, we detect a single-humped term structure. Hence, market participants revised their expectations and assumed a decline of land rental prices in the long term.