Identifying Agglomeration Spillovers: Evidence from Winners and Losers of Large Plant Openings
通过比较吸引到大型工厂的县（赢家）和作为备选但未成功的县（输家）中现有工厂的全要素生产率变化，量化集聚溢出效应。五年后赢家县工厂生产率高出12%，且与工厂共享劳动力和技术池的企业受益更大。
We quantify agglomeration spillovers by comparing changes in total factor productivity (TFP) among incumbent plants in "winning" counties that attracted a large manufacturing plant and "losing" counties that were the new plant's runner-up choice. Winning and losing counties have similar trends in TFP prior to the new plant opening. Five years after the opening, incumbent plants' TFP is 12 percent higher in winning counties. This productivity spillover is larger for plants sharing similar labor and technology pools with the new plant. Consistent with spatial equilibrium models, labor costs increase in winning counties, indicating that profits ultimately increase less than productivity. (c) 2010 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.