Trade Liberalization and Labor Market Dynamics
通过估计巴西劳动力市场的结构动态均衡模型，研究贸易自由化引发的劳动力调整过程，发现行业转换成本高、经验转移不完全，导致福利增益被延迟调整显著削弱。
I study trade-induced transitional dynamics by estimating a structural dynamic equilibrium model of the Brazilian labor market. The model features a multi-sector economy with overlapping generations, heterogeneous workers, endogenous accumulation of sector-speci c experience and costly switching of sectors. The model's estimates yield median costs of mobility ranging from 1.4 to 2.7 times annual average wages, but a high dispersion across the population. In addition, sector-speci c experience is imperfectly transferable across sectors, leading to additional barriers to mobility. Using the estimated model for counter-factual trade liberalization experiments, the main ndings are: (1) there is a large labor market response following trade liberalization but the transition may take several years; (2) potential aggregate welfare gains are signi cantly mitigated due to the delayed adjustment; (3) trade-induced welfare e ects depend on initial sector of employment and on worker demographics. The experiments also highlight the sensitivity of the transitional dynamics with respect to assumptions regarding the mobility of capital.