New Results on the Rationality of Survey Measures of Exchange-Rate Expectations
针对经济学家汇率决定模型有效性存疑的背景，本文用受限协整检验分析1989-97年马克/美元汇率调查预期，发现不能拒绝调查测度为无偏预测的假设，与市场参与者预期经济政策影响有关。
In light of research questioning the usefulness of economists' models of exchange-rate determination, this paper investigates the rationality of survey measures of expectations for Deutschmark/dollar exchange rates for 1989-97. Using Liu and Maddala's (1992) \\"restricted cointegration\\" test, the author cannot reject the assumption that survey measures are unbiased exchange-rate forecasts. This finding is related to market participants' anticipation of the impact of economic policies.