Conditional Cash Transfers, Schooling, and Child Labor
提出一种事前评估方法，用于分析巴西的Bolsa Escola项目，发现该项目使约60%的失学贫困儿童入学，但对贫困率和基尼系数的降低效果有限。
A growing number of developing economies are providing cash transfers to poor people that require certain behaviors on their part, such as attending school or regularly visiting health care facilities. A simple ex ante methodology is proposed for evaluating such programs and used to assess the Bolsa Escola program in Brazil. The results suggest that about 60 percent of poor 10- to 15-year-olds not in school enroll in response to the program. The program reduces the incidence of poverty by only a little more than one percentage point, however, and the Gini coefficient falls just half a point. Results are better for measures more sensitive to the bottom of the distribution, but the effect is never large.