The Welfare Cost of Perceived Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Social Security
通过原创调查测量人们对社会保障福利政策不确定性的感知程度，发现人们愿意放弃6%的当前法定福利以消除这种不确定性，相当于10%的预期福利风险溢价。
Policy uncertainty reduces individual welfare when individuals have limited opportunities to mitigate or insure against the resulting consumption fluctuations. We field an original survey to measure the degree of perceived policy uncertainty in Social Security benefits and to estimate the impact of this uncertainty on individual welfare. Our central estimates show that on average individuals are willing to forgo 6 percent of the benefits they are supposed to get under current law to remove the policy uncertainty associated with their future Social Security benefits. This translates to a risk premium from policy uncertainty equal to 10 percent of expected benefits.