需求侧长期停滞

Demand Side Secular Stagnation

American Economic Review · 2015
被引 461 · 同刊同年前 8%
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

指出日本、欧洲和美国正经历汉森提出的长期停滞,表现为复苏乏力、投资需求下降而储蓄供给增加,易陷入流动性陷阱;建议通过基础设施和私人投资来降低风险并提振需求。

Abstract

The experience of first Japan and now Europe and the USA suggests that Hansen's concept of secular stagnation is highly relevant. Recovery has been anemic and follows a generation of financially unsustainable and often lackluster growth. Investment demand has declined while the supply of saving has increased, leaving the economy vulnerable to liquidity traps. Although some US indicators have improved, forward real rates have declined sharply, European prospects remain muddled, and the zero-bound will likely constrain again during the next recession. Infrastructure and private investment are the best ways to both minimize the risk of secular stagnation and raise demand.

长期停滞需求侧流动性陷阱零利率下限基础设施投资